Models / LightGBM ×3 + GPR

Qualifying Pace

Per-sector pace deltas vs the session median, per driver.

LightGBM ×3 + GPRanalytics.qualifying

How it works

Three per-sector models predict each driver's delta versus the session median, adjusted for compound, track evolution, and tow. The deltas drive per-sector fastest probabilities, the projected pole battle, and the Q1/Q2 elimination odds.

Inputs

  • session-best sectors
  • compound
  • track evolution
  • constructor pace index

Output

sectors.s{1,2,3}.drivers[].pFastestP(fastest in the sector), field-normalized.
drivers[].eliminationQ1/Q2 elimination odds from the ranked field.

Calibration

Per-circuit conformal sigmas from the qualifying distribution model. See the calibration reference for the shared pipeline.

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