Models / XGBoost (two-stage)
Overtake Probability
P(position gain via on-track overtake within 3 laps), per driver.
XGBoost (two-stage)analytics.strategy
How it works
Predicts the probability of an on-track pass from the gap to the car ahead, pace delta, tyre offset, and a per-circuit overtake index. For 2026 the indices were recalibrated for zone-independent Overtake Mode rather than fixed DRS zones; defender state (compound, tyre life, qualifying pace) is resolved from the car directly ahead.
Inputs
- gap to car ahead
- pace delta
- tyre offset
- per-circuit overtake index
- defender state