Models / Calibrated logistic (stochastic timing game)

Undercut Timing Call

WHEN to strike: the recommended undercut lap and its success probability.

Calibrated logistic (stochastic timing game)analytics.strategy

How it works

Built on the calibrated undercut-outcome model, the timing call solves the strike-timing question — pit now versus wait — with the rival's reaction marginalized over its empirical response distribution. Served probabilities are the calibrated marginal at the recommended strike state and at the current state.

Inputs

  • undercut outcome model
  • rival reaction distribution
  • stint/tyre trajectories

Output

drivers[].undercutThreat.callRecommended strike lap, pNow, and pAtRecommended.

Calibration

Logistic calibration on historical undercut outcomes. See the calibration reference for the shared pipeline.

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