Models / gradient-boosted-ensemble

Pit Stop Prediction

P(this driver pits this lap), every lap.

gradient-boosted-ensembleanalytics.strategy

How it works

A gradient-boosted ensemble reads a rolling multi-lap feature window per driver — tyre age, fuel-corrected pace delta, stint length, gaps to the cars ahead and behind, and track status — and emits a pit probability each lap. A recommendation flag trips when the probability clears an era-adjusted threshold.

Inputs

  • rolling feature window
  • tyre age & compound
  • fuel-corrected pace delta
  • gaps ahead/behind
  • track status

Output

drivers[].pit.pNextLap0–1 probability of a stop this lap.
drivers[].pit.recommendedtrue when the probability clears the era threshold.

Calibration

Era-specific thresholds; recalibrated as each season's stop patterns accumulate. See the calibration reference for the shared pipeline.

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