Models / gradient-boosted-ensemble

Safety Car Probability

P(SC or VSC deployment next lap), session-level.

gradient-boosted-ensembleanalytics.strategy

How it works

A gradient-boosted classifier scores incident risk from track state, lap, field spread, and recent incidents, with a self-exciting component layered on to capture the clustering that tends to follow an incident. A 3-class variant separates full safety car from VSC.

Inputs

  • recent incidents
  • lap fraction
  • field spread
  • track status
  • rain signal

Output

raceState.pSafetyCarP(any SC/VSC next lap) — same value for all drivers.
raceState.pVsc / raceState.pFullSc3-class split when the variant model is loaded.
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