Models / LightGBM + Hawkes process

Safety Car Probability

P(SC or VSC deployment next lap), session-level.

LightGBM + Hawkes processanalytics.strategy

How it works

A gradient-boosted classifier scores incident risk from track state, lap, field spread, and recent incidents; a Hawkes self-exciting process layers on the post-incident clustering a static classifier misses. A 3-class variant separates full safety car from VSC.

Inputs

  • recent incidents
  • lap fraction
  • field spread
  • track status
  • rain signal

Output

safetyCarProbabilityP(any SC/VSC next lap) — same value for all drivers.
vscProbability / fullScProbability3-class split when the variant model is loaded.
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