MODELS FOR RACE DECISIONS

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Lap 18/68

Leader: RUS
P1 to P2: 0.5 s
Stops so far: 10
Win-chance mover: ANT −13 pts

Lap 17: Albon retires

Recorded Canadian GP replay

Pit halo grows with next-lap pit probability Arc to the car ahead thickens with overtake probability

Top 10 at lap 18
Position	Driver	Pit next lap	Overtake next lap
1	Russell	10%	none
2	Antonelli	9%	12%
3	Verstappen	10%	0%
4	Hamilton	6%	23%
5	Leclerc	10%	none
6	Hadjar	6%	12%
7	Colapinto	5%	none
8	Lawson	6%	none
9	Gasly	6%	none
10	Bearman	5%	0%

Recorded · Canadian GP · lap 18

1RUS10%leadDELTA
2ANT9%12%DELTA
3VER10%0%PUSH
4HAM6%23%PUSH
5LEC10%–DELTA
6HAD6%12%PUSH

Rounded model outputs. Drag the race clock to move through the race.

Row under the river: real stops (dots, leading four) · diamonds above: real passes among the leading four · amber bands: virtual safety car

Winner probability by lap (every 10th lap)
Lap	ANT	RUS	VER	HAM	rest
3	20%	24%	10%	10%	36%
13	37%	34%	10%	6%	13%
23	36%	41%	12%	5%	6%
33	72%	0%	15%	5%	8%
43	74%	0%	14%	8%	3%
53	89%	0%	5%	4%	1%
63	95%	0%	1%	3%	1%
68	98%	0%	0%	0%	1%

RECORDED MODEL RUN · 15 OCTOBER 2026

A real race. Two ways to evaluate the outputs.

Inspect a trading probability snapshot and a team strategy comparison from the Canadian GP replay. Each includes its source, forecast horizon and limits.

Explore the recorded cases →

Trading case · winner probability, lap 18

Team case · Verstappen next-lap pit probability

These descriptions use the same definitions as our model reference. A missing output means the model is unavailable or the state is ineligible; it does not mean zero probability.

When will they stop?

Pit timing, stop count, tyre life and the next compound.

Pit next lap probability, every 10th lap
Lap	ANT	HAM	VER	LEC	HAD	COL	LAW	GAS	SAI	BEA	PIA	HUL	BOR	OCO	STR	BOT	PER	NOR	RUS	ALO	ALB
3	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.8%	1.1%	0.3%	1.1%	2.1%	0.8%	1.1%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%	1.1%	0.8%	1.1%
13	5.4%	6.0%	6.5%	5.4%	5.2%	2.6%	2.1%	3.3%	1.1%	6.0%	0.1%	2.6%	2.6%	3.3%	5.2%	0.1%	5.2%	0.5%	6.0%	3.3%	8.9%
23	16.5%	9.0%	10.2%	16.5%	8.9%	3.3%	5.4%	5.4%	8.9%	6.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	5.2%	2.6%	0.2%	0.3%	10.2%	0.1%	-
33	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	3.3%	5.2%	2.6%	0.1%	7.9%	0.2%	0.3%	5.4%	6.0%	-	-
43	2.4%	3.3%	2.4%	3.3%	3.3%	2.1%	3.3%	1.1%	1.1%	5.2%	6.0%	1.1%	1.1%	5.2%	8.9%	2.6%	5.2%	2.4%	-	-	-
53	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-
63	0.5%	0.8%	2.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%	1.1%	1.1%	0.8%	0.8%	0.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.3%	-	-	-	-	-
68	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-

Pit radar · every driver (finishing order), every lap · white ticks are real stops · recorded Canadian GP replay

Pit Stop Prediction

Probability of a green-flag pit stop on the next lap; stops under safety car, VSC or red flag are not counted.

Verstappen tyre health and cliff risk
Lap	Health %	Cliff risk
6	90.7	12.9%
10	86.6	12.9%
14	82.5	13.2%
18	78.4	13.2%
22	74.3	16.0%
26	70.1	13.8%
30	66.0	17.0%

Verstappen, one stint: tyre health drains toward the modelled cliff · recorded Canadian GP replay

Tyre Cliff

P(tyre performance cliff within the next few laps), per driver per lap, plus live tyre health.

Next compound, lap 18
Driver	Soft	Medium	Hard
ANT	0.1%	98.0%	2.0%
VER	0.1%	79.8%	20.1%
LEC	0.0%	91.6%	8.4%
HUL	0.1%	66.0%	34.0%
RUS	0.3%	99.2%	0.5%
ALO	0.1%	95.5%	4.5%

Next-compound probability, opened on the lap where the model splits · recorded Canadian GP replay

Tire Compound

The next compound a pitting driver takes, as probabilities.

Stop count, lap 18
Driver	1 stop	2 stops	3+ stops
RUS	44.8%	24.0%	31.2%
ANT	49.1%	31.8%	19.1%
VER	48.6%	32.8%	18.6%
HAM	48.6%	32.7%	18.6%
LEC	49.1%	39.7%	11.1%
HAD	47.3%	41.2%	11.5%
COL	55.3%	37.5%	7.2%
LAW	55.1%	37.0%	7.9%

Lap 18, top 8: how many of 20 votes say 1, 2 or 3+ stops · recorded Canadian GP replay

Pit Stop Count

P(one / two / three+ total stops) for the race, per driver — re-estimated every lap.

Stop within 3 and 5 laps, top six at lap 32
Driver	Within 3	Within 5
ANT	31.3%	47.5%
VER	32.0%	44.7%
HAM	37.5%	50.5%
HAD	31.3%	47.5%
LEC	31.3%	47.5%
COL	0.9%	1.8%

Top six: stop within 3 and 5 laps, opened on the lap where they differ most · recorded Canadian GP replay

Pit Window Survival

How much longer each driver's current stint is likely to run.

Who is really fastest?

Pace against expectation, the mode each driver is running and the fastest lap.

Pace mode, every 10th lap
Lap	ANT	HAM	VER	LEC	HAD	COL	LAW	GAS	SAI	BEA	PIA	HUL	BOR	OCO	STR	BOT	PER	NOR	RUS	ALO	ALB
3	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up	warm up
13	push	push	push	push	push	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	push	push	delta	delta	warm up	push	delta	push	push	delta
23	push	push	push	push	push	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	warm up	warm up	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	push	warm up	-
33	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	warm up	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	delta	caution	caution	caution	push	-	-
43	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	push	push	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	push	push	delta	delta	-	-	-
53	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	caution	-	-	-	-	-
63	delta	delta	delta	delta	push	delta	push	push	delta	push	push	delta	delta	push	delta	delta	-	-	-	-	-
68	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	push	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	delta	push	delta	delta	-	-	-	-	-

Race DNA · pace mode of every driver on every lap · recorded Canadian GP replay

Pace Mode

Which pace mode a driver is running — push, hold, manage, warm-up or delta — per lap.

Raw last lap against LTOE, lap 18
Driver	Raw lap	LTOE s
ANT	1:16.531	1.21
HAM	1:16.068	0.03
VER	1:16.088	-0.02
LEC	1:16.553	-0.14
HAD	1:16.499	-0.14
COL	1:17.138	-0.21
LAW	1:17.580	-0.09
GAS	1:17.633	0.12
SAI	1:17.221	-0.22
BEA	1:17.520	-0.49
PIA	1:17.308	-0.73
HUL	1:17.698	-0.63
BOR	1:17.701	-0.79
OCO	1:38.391	19.03
STR	1:22.036	-
BOT	1:19.532	-0.09
PER	1:24.198	17.18
NOR	1:17.206	-
RUS	1:16.545	0.95
ALO	1:20.790	0.64
ALB	1:17.221	-

Lap 18, ten fastest raw laps: rank by raw last lap time against rank by lap time over expected · recorded Canadian GP replay

Pace Normalization (LTOE)

Lap Time Over Expected — the normalized pace delta, per lap.

No qualifying recording with model outputs exists · recorded Canadian GP replay

Qualifying Pace

Per-sector pace deltas vs the session median, per driver.

Fastest-lap probability, every 10th lap
Lap	ANT	HAM	VER	LEC	HAD	COL	LAW	GAS	SAI	BEA	PIA	HUL	BOR	OCO	STR	BOT	PER	NOR	RUS	ALO	ALB
3	14.1%	10.6%	19.3%	14.1%	14.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	3.1%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	8.5%	14.1%	0.1%	0.1%
13	21.7%	6.3%	10.5%	10.5%	10.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.2%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	5.6%	30.8%	0.1%	0.1%
23	31.8%	6.5%	10.8%	10.8%	10.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.4%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.4%	22.4%	0.1%	-
33	36.3%	7.1%	24.6%	11.8%	11.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	1.6%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.6%	2.5%	-	-
43	25.2%	16.5%	25.2%	12.1%	12.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	1.0%	0.1%	1.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.7%	-	-	-
53	54.5%	6.7%	11.2%	11.3%	6.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-
63	51.8%	16.8%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-
68	63.4%	2.2%	5.9%	10.0%	9.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-

Fastest-lap probability over the final 25 laps · recorded Canadian GP replay

Fastest Lap Probability

P(this driver holds the race's fastest lap at the flag).

Will they pass?

On-track passing odds and the undercut and overcut threats.

Closest fight in the top 5, every 10th lap: chasing car, car ahead, gap and pass probability
Lap	Chasing car	Car ahead	Gap s	Pass next lap
3	RUS (P2)	ANT (P1)	0.10	38.5%
13	ANT (P2)	RUS (P1)	0.26	22.8%
23	RUS (P2)	ANT (P1)	0.33	22.8%
33	LEC (P5)	HAD (P4)	1.85	0.7%
43	HAD (P5)	LEC (P4)	1.26	0.7%
53	HAD (P5)	LEC (P4)	1.07	1.8%
63	VER (P3)	HAM (P2)	0.29	2.5%

Overtake Probability

P(a clean on-track pass on the next lap), per attacking driver.

Gap to car ahead in seconds, every 10th lap
Lap	ANT	HAM	VER	LEC	HAD	COL	LAW	GAS	SAI	BEA	PIA	HUL	BOR	OCO	STR	BOT	PER	NOR	RUS	ALO	ALB
3	-	0.3	1.0	0.6	1.4	2.7	1.0	1.8	0.6	3.2	3.2	0.0	1.9	0.8	0.5	1.7	0.2	-	0.1	0.7	0.7
13	0.3	0.6	4.9	1.3	3.1	16.4	3.3	2.3	4.0	1.8	1.1	4.7	5.5	2.3	2.4	45.0	0.5	6.3	-	7.7	-
23	-	4.8	6.8	3.3	1.3	23.2	8.1	7.9	11.1	1.7	15.2	13.1	3.9	1.7	13.5	26.7	8.2	6.5	0.3	1.2	-
33	-	8.0	5.3	1.9	3.1	29.9	11.4	3.4	9.1	7.5	10.5	11.5	6.6	27.5	14.1	41.5	0.7	3.9	-	-	-
43	-	4.0	4.8	7.5	1.3	39.5	13.2	2.3	15.6	7.0	6.3	8.8	6.5	39.1	33.3	28.4	-	-	-	-	-
53	-	3.0	10.7	14.9	1.1	40.7	23.8	0.9	26.5	3.7	4.1	17.4	9.8	67.5	50.8	49.9	-	-	-	-	-
63	-	9.8	0.3	21.6	12.2	42.6	10.7	0.5	22.5	4.2	3.1	23.7	-	53.2	999.0	49.4	-	-	-	-	-
68	-	10.8	0.5	32.9	38.4	14.5	14.7	0.3	23.4	1.0	29.7	1.5	2.0	47.5	999.0	35.0	-	-	-	-	-

Every driver's gap to the car ahead, with the viable undercut window; the verdict is for the closest top-5 fight · recorded Canadian GP replay

Undercut

P(pitting now puts the driver ahead of the car in front once it covers), when within 5s — plus whether to strike now or hold.

Overcut success readings at lap 11, highest first
Driver	Overcut p
PIA	86.9%
STR	69.3%
HUL	67.4%
SAI	59.4%
PER	45.8%
BOR	45.0%

Overcut success, opened on the lap with the most live duels · recorded Canadian GP replay

Overcut Threat

P(pitting next lap ends ahead of a rival that has already stopped), while that duel is live.

What happens next in the race?

Caution risk and retirement risk.

Safety-car probability, every 10th lap
Lap	Probability	During a VSC
3	2.8%	no
13	7.3%	no
23	7.3%	no
31	98.2%	yes (reaction)
32	96.2%	yes (reaction)
33	7.3%	no
43	7.3%	no
46	98.2%	yes (reaction)
53	98.1%	yes (reaction)
54	94.7%	yes (reaction)
63	7.3%	no

Race clock · safety-car probability by lap, real VSC periods in yellow · recorded Canadian GP replay

Safety Car Probability

P(a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car next lap), one value for the whole field.

Retirement risk, every 10th lap (blank after a car retires)
Lap	ANT	HAM	VER	LEC	HAD	COL	LAW	GAS	SAI	BEA	PIA	HUL	BOR	OCO	STR	BOT	PER	NOR	RUS	ALO	ALB
3	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%
13	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.6%
23	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	-
33	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	7.1%	-	-
43	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.4%	5.5%	6.0%	-	-	-
53	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	-	-	-	-	-
63	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.3%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	-	-	-	-	-
68	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-	-	-	-	-

Retirement risk: every running car shares one value, about 12% falling to under 1%; 5 cars really retired · recorded Canadian GP replay

DNF Risk

P(this driver retires before the flag, given still running), per lap.

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Lap	ANT	RUS	VER	HAM	rest
3	20%	24%	10%	10%	36%
13	37%	34%	10%	6%	13%
23	36%	41%	12%	5%	6%
33	72%	0%	15%	5%	8%
43	74%	0%	14%	8%	3%
53	89%	0%	5%	4%	1%
63	95%	0%	1%	3%	1%
68	98%	0%	0%	0%	1%

Lap	ANT	RUS	VER	HAM	rest
3	20%	24%	10%	10%	36%
13	37%	34%	10%	6%	13%
23	36%	41%	12%	5%	6%
33	72%	0%	15%	5%	8%
43	74%	0%	14%	8%	3%
53	89%	0%	5%	4%	1%
63	95%	0%	1%	3%	1%
68	98%	0%	0%	0%	1%

Lap	ANT	RUS	VER	HAM	rest
3	20%	24%	10%	10%	36%
13	37%	34%	10%	6%	13%
23	36%	41%	12%	5%	6%
33	72%	0%	15%	5%	8%
43	74%	0%	14%	8%	3%
53	89%	0%	5%	4%	1%
63	95%	0%	1%	3%	1%
68	98%	0%	0%	0%	1%