Models / XGBoost

Fastest Lap Probability

P(this driver sets the session's fastest lap).

XGBoostanalytics.race-odds

How it works

Field-relative model — each driver's probability is scored against the field's current fastest and then L1-normalized so the field sums to 1.0. Updated as the race unfolds.

Inputs

  • pace vs field
  • tyre freshness
  • laps remaining
  • position context

Output

drivers[].fastestLapProbabilityField-normalized probability.
← All models