Models / Survival analysis (bathtub hazard)

DNF Risk

Retirement hazard per driver, per lap.

Survival analysis (bathtub hazard)analytics.strategy

How it works

A bathtub-shaped hazard — elevated at the start (incidents), flat mid-race, rising late (reliability) — conditioned on calibrated constructor reliability priors and race state.

Inputs

constructor reliability prior
lap fraction
incident context

Output

drivers[].dnfRisk.dnfRiskScore0–1 hazard score.

drivers[].dnfRisk.lapsTo50PctSurvivalHorizon at which survival crosses 50%.

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