Models / survival-model

DNF Risk

Retirement hazard per driver, per lap.

survival-modelanalytics.strategy

How it works

A survival model estimates retirement hazard through the race — elevated early (incidents), lower mid-race, rising late (reliability) — conditioned on calibrated constructor reliability priors and race state.

Inputs

  • constructor reliability prior
  • lap fraction
  • incident context

Output

drivers[].reliability.dnfRisk0–1 hazard score.
drivers[].reliability.lapsTo50PctSurvivalHorizon at which survival crosses 50%.
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